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The Automobile Road to Technological Change

机译:汽车技术变革之路

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摘要

Advancement of the motor vehicle and its production methods is analyzed as a process of technological change. In a broader context, motor vehicles evolved as an intergal component of road transportation through a series of interlaced substitutions of old by new technologies. Building on a large number of studies that described technological substitution processes, first it is shown how new energy forms replaced their predecessors and how the old marine-transport technologies were substituted by new ones. These examples constitute some of the oldest, empirically documented technological changes and show that many events in the dynamics of energy substitution and marine transport are related to technological changes in road transportation. It is shown that these substitution processes can be described by simple rules and that the replacement of old by new technologies in the energy and transport systems lasted about 80 years. The technological changes within road transportation, however, were more rapid. Replacement of horses by automobiles and older by newer generations of motor vehicles and production methods lasted only a few decades in the United States. Thus, technological substitutions within the road-transportation system were considerably shorter than the expansion of railroads, surfaced roads, all road vehicles together, and the more recent expansion of air transportation.
机译:作为技术变革的过程,分析了机动车及其生产方法的进步。在更广阔的背景下,通过一系列新技术对旧事物的交错替代,汽车已成为道路运输的重要组成部分。在大量描述技术替代过程的研究的基础上,首先显示了新能源形式如何替代其前身以及旧的海上运输技术如何被新技术替代。这些例子构成了一些最古老的,有经验证明的技术变化,并表明能源替代和海洋运输动力学中的许多事件都与公路运输的技术变化有关。结果表明,这些替代过程可以用简单的规则来描述,并且能源和运输系统中的新技术替代旧技术持续了大约80年。但是,公路运输中的技术变化更加迅速。在美国,仅用几十年的时间就用汽车代替马匹,而用较新一代的汽车代替马匹和生产方法。因此,公路运输系统中的技术替代要比铁路,地表道路,所有公路车辆的扩展以及最近的航空运输的扩展短得多。

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  • 作者

    Nakicenovic, N.;

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  • 年度 1986
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 en
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